Scribes in the U.S. press snapped to attention last year when the Gallup Poll announced that as of 2020 less than half of Americans held religious memberships for the first time in its eight decades of asking the question. Only 47% of Americans said they belonged to a church, synagogue, mosque or other house of worship, a dramatic loss from the 70% as recently as 1999.
Now comes the Pew Research Center with a related pulse-pounder issued last week.
Pew figures that currently 64% of Americans (including children) identify as Christians in some sense, compared with 6% for other religions and a hefty 30% for “nones” and “nothing in particulars” — those without religious affiliation. Then we’re told that 50 years from now the Christian percentage may well fall to a modest 54% or even to a remarkable 35% in the worst-case scenario, while the non-religious population rises to somewhere between 34% and a slim majority of 52%.
Understandably, the Pew numbers became spot news for, among others, CBS, National Public Radio, the Washington Examiner and Washington Post, both newspapers in faith-focused Salt Lake City, USA Today, Britain’s The Guardian and a host of religious outlets.
This remains a good spot story for media that haven’t yet reported Pew’s basics. But even media that have reported the topline numbers could return to the theme with illustrative anecdotes and reactions from area religious leaders. And for sure journalists and religious analysts will want to give the full report some careful thought.
Pew emphasizes that its numbers are only “possibilities,” not “predictions of what will happen,” and comments that such a future would have “far-reaching consequences for politics, family life and civil society.” For example, also consider the multiple social science surveys that associate religious involvement with psychological and medical well-being and positive life outcomes for youths. Also, there is the impact of religious charity, not only effective huge organizations but private person-to-person interactions. Also, religions strengthen community in our “Bowling Alone” culture.
Pew calculated four future scenarios based largely upon the rates at which Americans may switch in or out of Christian identification and in or out of religious “none” status. In all four, the percentage in non-Christian religions is expected to double. Pew employed many data banks as the basis for trend lines, including its own American Trends Panel with 15,494 ongoing participants, “weighted” to fit demographics in its National Public Opinion Reference Survey. The methodology is explained at length in the report.
On switching, it’s certainly interesting that currently 21% of adults who were raised without any religion end up identifying Christian as adults while 3% of those raised Christian convert to a different religion. The researchers say if patterns of recent years hold we’d end up in 2070 with a population that’s 39% Christian, 48% with no religious affiliation, plus the 12% in non-Christian religions.
The project was limited to the who, what, when and where. As for the all-important “why” of past declines and future possibilities, that’s a big story theme now left to writers and their sources.
One aspect given new attention in this report is the degree to which both Christian and non-religious “none” parents transmit their outlook to their children.
Turns out there’s little difference. Christians pass their identity on to 83% of teens compared with 88% for the “nones.” Pew bases this only on the mothers’ faith due to their outsize influence compared with fathers and the fact that a fourth of U.S. youths are now being raised in single-parent households mostly led by women. (This power of mothers vs. fathers is yet another story theme.)
The Guy adds a couple notes. Immigration will be a major factor for the future but Pew finds it hard to predict, so for the purposes of this study kept the numbers constant for the coming 50 years, and the same for birth and death rates.
Pew specifies three types of “nones,” atheists, agnostics and — by far the largest attitude — those who choose “nothing in particular.” Christian strategists should be aware that non-affiliation is not the same thing as being totally non-religious, since many “nones” retain some spiritual ideas and practices apart from “organized religion.” Veterans on the religion-beat will recall this term — “Sheilaism.”
For media follow-ups, the go-to-guy on interpretation and pitfalls in such U.S. religion number-crunching is GetReligion contributor and political scientist Ryan Burge at Eastern Illinois University (314–884–1450 and rpburge@eiu.edu; also review his past media coverage at http://ryanburge.net/media). At Pew, project researchers Stephanie Kramer or Conrad Hackett can be reached via publicist Kelsey Beveridge (202–419– 4372).