Observers are still scratching heads over President Trump’s unusual June 1 walk alongside top administration officials to the arson-damaged and boarded-up St. John’s Episcopal Church, not to pray or speak to an anxious nation but simply to brandish a Bible for the cameras. Politically risky removal of nearby demonstrators preceded the walk, which provoked a media / military / political uproar.
What’s going on here? Much of the following will be familiar for religion specialists. But amid all the 2020 discussion of, say, suburban women or the race of Joe Biden’s running mate, political reporters should be alert to religious dynamics. A related event June 2 said much and deserved more attention as the President and First Lady paid a ceremonial visit to the St. John Paul II National Shrine, sponsored by the Knights of Columbus.
Simply put, Trump cannot win unless he maintains Republicans’ customary lopsided support from white evangelical Protestants. He also needs a smaller but solid majority of non-Hispanic Catholics, the more devout the better. Think Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Politico’s Gabby Orr nailed things in a May 22 analysis after the president prodded governors to reopen churches. “A sudden shift in support for Donald Trump among religious conservatives is triggering alarm bells inside his re-election campaign,” because a downward slide in their enthusiasm “could sink” his prospects.
The White House no doubt reacted to its own internal polls, but Orr especially cited data from the Pew Research Center (media contact Anna Schiller, aschiller@pewresearch.org, 202–419-4514) and the Public Religion Research Institute or PRRI www.prri.org (contact Jordun Lawrence, press@prri.org, 202–688-3259). These two organizations are important because their polls usually distinguish white evangelicals from other Protestants, and white from Hispanic Catholics.
Turn to the PRRI report on “favorable” opinion toward Trump’s performance — not respondents’ voting intentions — as of March, April, and the latest survey May 26-31.
Looking at Trump’s two pivotal religious categories, with white evangelicals his favoribility in the three surveys went from 77 to 66 to 62%, down 15 points. With white Catholics, the decline went from 60 to 48 to 37%, a heart-stopping 23-point change. With anything like that in November, it’s hard to imagine 270 Electoral College Trump votes (leaving aside the popular vote). And look for a spillover effect on Republican hopes to keep majority control of the U.S. Senate.
Pew data on religion in a June 2 roundup underscores the longer-term stakes. In 1994, when Republicans took the U.S. House during President Bill Clinton’s first term, 61% of white evangelicals identified with or leaned toward the Republicans, versus 31% for Democrats. The current figures are a massive 78% versus 17%. In the same years, white Catholic sentiment went from 45 to 57% Republican and 45 down to 38% Democratic.
Polls aside, a less objective barometer is anecdotal evidence from what religious figures say and do. The local Episcopal bishop lamented Trump’s Bible gambit, not surprising since she was not notified in advance and “mainline” Protestant leaders are usually on different socio-political wavelengths from Trump. The local Catholic archbishop likewise was vexed by the Trumps’ shrine visit, though the fact he is African-American presumably influenced this reaction.
What about evangelicals? The Rev. Franklin Graham (son of Billy) responded, “Thank you President Trump. God and His Word are the only hope for our nation.” Yet Senator Ben Sasse, one of the most devout evangelicals on Capitol Hill, said “There is no right to riot, no right to destroy others’ property, and no right to throw rocks at police. But there is a fundamental — a Constitutional — right to protest, and I’m against clearing out a peaceful protest for a photo op that treats the Word of God as a political prop.''
His Senate GOP colleague Mitt Romney won headlines for joining Sunday’s Washington protest against police misconduct against blacks, but area evangelicals also organized a sizable turnout. Among the pastors was David Platt, who leads Virginia’s five-campus McLean Bible Church, which Trump visited last year.
Outliers, or harbingers?
Sources: In addition to the usual roster of pollsters, pundits and campaign operatives, media should tap political scientists knowledgeable about religion factors. Here are five. Ryan Burge, Eastern Illinois University, rpburge@eiu.edu and 314-884-1450. Darren Davis, University of Notre Dame, darren.davis@nd.edu and 574-631-5654. John C. Green, University of Akron, green@uakron.edu and 330-972-5182. Jim Guth, Furman University, jim.guth@furman.edu and 864-294-3330. Corwin Smidt, Calvin University, smid@calvin.edu and 616-526-6233.