Am I alone in thinking that leaders of the Religion News Association probably wish that they could have delayed shipping the ballots for their poll to select this year’s top religion-news events and trends?

The bombshell Vatican document encouraging priests to bless same-sex couples (and other Catholics in “irregular” marriages and relationships) would have ranked very high in the list of the Top 10 international stories. As you would imagine, this was one of the main topics in this week’s “Crossroads” podcast (CLICK HERE to tune that in).

A hint of what was coming could be seen in the fourth item in the global RNA results:

The Vatican says it’s permissible, under certain circumstances, for transgender Catholics to be baptized and serve as godparents. Pope Francis criticizes laws that criminalize homosexuality as “unjust.” A meeting of German bishops and laity calls for the church to approve blessings of same-sex unions.

Ah, the ongoing progressive reformation in Germany. Hold that thought.

Meanwhile, the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith insisted that its move was pastoral and will not change ancient Catholic teachings about the sacrament of marriage. However, the press coverage fueled waves of confusion in which activists on the Catholic left and right noted that the symbolic nature of these rites will be completely impossible to ignore or control. Scan the 20,000+ news stories, if you wish.

Only one question remains: Who will the Vatican discipline? The German bishops who push on with their attempts, via the Synod on Synodality, to change church teachings on this matter or the doctrinal conservatives in the Global South and elsewhere who reject this document altogether? I wonder that Cardinal Raymond Burke and Bishop Joseph Strickland will say about that?

Let’s back up for a moment. The top stories in both the International and U.S. lists were linked to the hellish Hamas attack on Israeli civilians and then Israel’s stunning attempts to crush the terrorists who, as always, were based in Gaza locations shielded by helpless Palestinians.

Thus, the top two global stories were:

Hamas launches a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 Israeli civilians and soldiers, and taking about 240 hostages. Following this, Israel begins a full-scale assault in Gaza, killing at least 18,000 civilians and militants. The war reignites intense debates around Palestinian liberation and Zionism, and spikes in Islamophobia and antisemitism worldwide.

Then:

Muslims and Jews in numerous countries experience high levels of tension and vulnerability amid increases in hate crimes following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s response. Demonstrators denounce bigotry in many cities, championing opposing sides in the war.

The key in the RNA results was an emphasis on Islamophobia, as well as (or even more than) antisemitism. Thus, the top story in the U.S. list said:

Incidents of hate against Jews and Muslims skyrocket after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas against Israel, and Israel’s military assault in Gaza. In Illinois, a Palestinian-American boy is killed and his mother wounded in an alleged hate attack. The conflict prompts numerous protests, and college campuses see fierce debate about the war and the boundaries of free speech. Many Jewish groups and evangelical Christians staunchly support Israel, while many Muslim and progressive religious groups decry Israel’s invasion.

What about the elderly Jewish demonstrator, Paul Kessler, who died after suffering “great bodily injury” inflicted by college professor Loay Abdelfattah Alnaji in Los Angeles? Just asking.

The Israel-Gaza war was clearly the year’s most important story. Also, we know that, for journalists, the most important story in 2024 will certainly be whatever white evangelicals do or do not do linked to Orange Man Bad and the looming White House race.

What I asked listeners to ponder, however, were the ties that bind some of the year’s other most important stories on the religion beat.

Start here, with a landmark 2002 Atlantic Monthly cover story by historian Philip Jenkins. That double-decker headline was:

The Next Christianity

We stand at a historical turning point, the author argues — one that is as epochal for the Christian world as the original Reformation. Around the globe Christianity is growing and mutating in ways that observers in the West tend not to see. Tumultuous conflicts within Christianity will leave a mark deeper than Islam's on the century ahead

That led to this must-read Jenkins book: “The Next Christendom — The Coming of Global Christianity.”

OK, now think about the Vatican’s same-sex blessing document in that context. Then connect the dots in these three 2023 RNA poll stories. Here’s No. 3 in the U.S. list:

More than 5,600 congregations leave the United Methodist Church. Many join more conservative Methodist denominations or go independent in a widening schism over theology and the role of LGBTQ congregants in what had long been the nation’s second-largest Protestant denomination.

That exit number is now well over 7,000 and rising — basically a quarter of the shrinking U.S. denomination.

But here’s the truth that’s missing from that RNA item. The Methodist story is global, not national. Methodism is growing in Africa, Asia and the Global South in general and the churches there are much more traditional on doctrinal issues than the entrenched establishment here in North America.

Now consider the No. 3 story in the global RNA list:

The Anglican Communion verges on schism as conservative church leaders, representing about 85 percent of the global Anglican population, declare no confidence in the communion’s traditional instruments of unity — including the leadership of archbishop of Canterbury. This follows a Church of England decision to let priests bless same-sex marriages and civil partnerships.

Once again, where are those growing Anglican churches? That would be Africa, Asia and the wider Global South. Where are the national churches that are in a state of demographic collapse (but they remain rich and powerful)? That would be America, England and the liberal West.

It’s the same story, in other words.

Now, look at story No. 6 in the NRA global list (and link this to the Vatican same-sex blessing document):

Pope Francis gathers a synod of Catholic bishops and laypeople, which approves a non-binding document citing an “urgent” need for fuller participation of women in church governance. Progressives had hoped, and conservatives feared, the gathering would send stronger signals on behalf of women in leadership and of welcoming of LGBTQ+ people.

The synod is led by Europeans from declining churches — Germany, Italy, etc. — while Catholicism’s growth is easy to see in the more doctrinally conservative churches of (#WaitForIt) Africa, Asia and the Global South. While Pope Francis was born in Argentina, his heritage is solidly Italian. Combine that with his Jesuit heart and head and his approach to church life is quite European.

What’s next? Yes, there are tensions between Rome and many conservative bishops in the United States.

But journalists, in 2024, need to keep their eyes on Catholics, Anglicans and Methodists in the Global South. Look for the doctrinal ties that bind, and divide.

Enjoy the podcast and, please, pass it along to others. And don’t forget that you can subscribe to get “Crossroads” through the Apple podcast website.

FIRST IMAGE: Uncredited graphic from “Tech Trends 2024: The Biggest Technology Trends to Watch“ feature at UCAdvisor.com website